A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
